China VP set to get military post in a step to top

Tuesday, September 15, 2009 at 1:16 AM Posted by Beijing News


BEIJING – China's communist elite opened an annual conclave Tuesday at which they are expected to appoint the vice president to a powerful military commission — a move that would cement his status as heir to the presidency of the world's most populous nation.

If the Central Committee ignores precedent and doesn't name Xi Jinping to the Communist Party's military commission at an annual meeting this week, it could signal discord among the leadership over who will succeed President Hu Jintao in 2012.

But the consensus among China-watchers ahead of the closed-door gathering seems to be that Xi, who became heir apparent when he was appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee two years ago, has avoided any missteps that would derail his elevation.

"I have no reason to believe Xi has made any major mistake," said Steve Tsang, a China expert at Oxford University. "As long as he does not do so, he will take over from Hu in 2012."

The official Xinhua News Agency announced the meeting's opening Tuesday, but conformed with the party's traditional secrecy surrounding leadership issues and made no mention of Xi or the military commission.

Xinhua said attendees would discuss a draft document on "party building" — which covers everything from recruiting for the 75 million-member party to fighting the corruption that fuels many protests. They also will hear a report on the work of the committee's nine-member Politburo led by Hu, it said.

A report last week in the Wen Wei Po, a party-backed newspaper in Hong Kong, said new measures to require officials to declare their assets would be among reforms discussed.

The meeting of the 204-member Central Committee comes at a fraught time. The party is preparing for the 60th anniversary of communist rule on Oct. 1, and it wants to showcase its rising power with a military parade through Beijing's Tiananmen Square and other celebrations.

But recent ethnic unrest in the country's west, violent strikes in steel factories and mass protests in other cities have made Hu's call for a "harmonious society" ring hollow. The economic growth the leadership relies on to ease social tensions remains tentative as key export markets in the U.S. and Europe struggle.

The 56-year-old Xi already holds two of the three posts Hu held as heir-apparent — the Politburo portfolio handling party affairs and the vice presidency. Hu added the vice chairmanship of the Central Military Commission three years before his anointment as party leader, and many presume Xi will now assume this post because he appears to be following in Hu's footsteps.

A smooth succession should help the party maintain its control over a rapidly changing society and an economy that is poised to overtake Japan's as the world's second largest. Some scholars think a lack of friction could even encourage leaders to enact political reforms, including opening some posts to competitive elections within the party. Discord, on the other hand, could breed fear among the leadership that they're losing control and lead to a clampdown.

One expert says Xi's artfully arranged succession narrowed competition for leadership posts.

"If it happens in the same way as what happened to Hu 10 years ago, it can undermine the so-called inner-party democracy," said Cheng Li, a China politics expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

The son of an influential party elder, Xi led the economically vibrant eastern regions of Fujian, Zhejiang and Shanghai before emerging somewhat late as the leading candidate for successor at the 17th Congress in the fall of 2007.

Thus far, he has been handed several high-profile and politically risky assignments, among them overseeing final preparation for last year's Beijing Olympics and this year's anniversary celebrations.

The new post would make him deputy to Hu at the military commission, which is in charge of the 2.3 million-member People's Liberation Army. The army is politically influential and is thus an important base for any future leader.







Fashion Week in New York. AP/Louis Lanzano

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