EDITOR'S NOTE: Iranian authorities have barred journalists for international news organizations from reporting on the streets and ordered them to stay in their offices. This report is based on the accounts of witnesses reached in Iran and official statements carried on Iranian media.
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Iran's Islamic regime may well ride out the post-election crisis, but not without collateral damage.
The contours of what's likely ahead are already taking shape: more isolation from the West and a leadership turning on the pressure at home, with its military forces and street-level vigilantes swiping hard at anything or anyone perceived as a threat.
On state television, the messages are shrill and defensive in blaming foreign "enemies" for the mayhem after the disputed June 12 vote. On the streets, security forces swarm over any hint of a protest, hauling away journalists, political figures, university professors and activists.
The candidate-turned-opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is now telling his backers to hunker down for a long struggle.
It adds up to a regime turning to its survival instincts. That likely means the same pathologies that accompany any state of siege — real or perceived: more isolation, more paranoia and no hesitation to use all the weapons at its disposal.
Iran's theocracy can call on a very serious protector: the Revolutionary Guard and its millions of civilian militiamen, known as the Basij. Spread through nearly every neighborhood and village in the country, their ability to snuff out public dissent was aptly illustrated Wednesday when a small band of demonstrators outside parliament brought an onslaught of black-clad commandos and vigilantes swooping in on motorcycles. Protest over.
Hundreds of people have been detained in the past two weeks, including Iranian journalists, aides and advisers to Mousavi and reformist politicians. On Thursday, authorities arrested 70 university professors who met with the embattled Mousavi, who is under constant surveillance by security agents. All but four were later released, Mousavi's Web site reported.
The Committee to Protect Journalists said about 40 journalists and media workers have been jailed in the post-election crackdown following election results that showed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the landslide winner.
Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, compared it to martial law. That's not just angry rhetoric.
The ruling theocrats know the Revolutionary Guard have the resources to battle internal unrest as long as it takes — and can give supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a buffer after facing unprecedented public challenges to his near-limitless powers, which some loyalists believe are divinely anointed.
Despite elections for president and parliament, the only real power in Iran rests with the clerics at the top. But their rule has always been backed up by the clout of the security forces. The coming months may fully display how much the turban depends on the helmet.
That's because the Revolutionary Guard and its network are just as vested in preserving the Islamic system. The 500,000-strong Guard is separate from the ordinary armed forces and serves as a private army for the Islamic establishment. But its influence stretches much deeper, including roles in Iran's ports, oil fields and missile and nuclear programs. It's a bit of the Pentagon, CIA, Homeland Security and FBI rolled into one.
There's little chance they would fold as easily as the forces of the Western-backed shah in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
"Their name is exactly what they do: protect the revolution," said Talal Atrissi, a Lebanese political analyst who follows Iranian affairs. "Their loyalty is extremely high."
The latest waves of arrests may just be a taste of what's ahead. The clerics have shown their ability to relentlessly pound at liberal-leaning supporters and outlets — during much less critical times.
Brian Murphy is the AP's bureau chief in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and has covered Iranian affairs since 1999. Associated Press Writer Sam F. Ghattas in Beirut contributed to this report.
Glastonbury Festival in England on June 25.REUTERS/Luke MacGregor
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