World swine flu fears persist as Mexico returns to life

Friday, May 8, 2009 at 2:13 AM Posted by Beijing News


Global health chiefs warned against complacency over swine flu Thursday saying one in three people may be infected worldwide if there is a pandemic, as life in Mexico got back to normal.

"It is critical for countries to maintain their alertness and monitoring so this evolution can be followed as closely as possible," said Keiji Fukuda, acting director-general of the UN's World Health Organization WHO.

"We don't believe we have fully got a handle on the severity of the phenomenon."

In a video conference in Bangkok, Fukuda warned the disease could become more virulent later in the year with the onset of the northern hemisphere's winter flu season.

The latest WHO figures show 2,099 cases of influenza AH1N1 infections have been reported by 23 countries. Some 46 people have died, 44 of them in Mexico and two in the United States.

"Complacency is the greatest danger," said Fukuda. "It does appear to be a period where the virus maybe is seeding itself in various parts of the world.

"What we are seeing now is milder than in 1918 when up to 50 million people died of the Spanish influenza pandemic. But 1918 started mild in springtime and became more severe in winter."

He later underlined: "If you look at past pandemics, it would be a reasonable estimate that a third of the population would be infected."

But Fukuda stressed his estimate was based on past pandemics and that "we live in a different world."

As Mexico's schools, bars and cinemas reopened under strict supervision after a week-long shutdown, top officials warned people to remain on their guard.

"The fact that we're returning to classes and city activities are returning to normal doesn't mean that we should forget that the virus is still there," Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said in a news conference Thursday.

Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova announced two more dead and 90 more cases, bringing the total to 44 dead among the 1,160 infected. But the number of cases peaked last week and was waning, he added.

The emergence of the virus, a new strain that has combined human, swine and bird influenza, set off fears of a worldwide pandemic, even though the death toll has been relatively low.

Countries have imposed a range of measures to prevent a global outbreak, especially hitting the tourism and travel industries. Some have restricted meat imports from Mexico, Canada and the United States.

The three North American countries issued a joint call Thursday urging nations that buy their pork products to end any import bans, as Russia lifted a ban on five US states but added Illinois to its blacklist.

The number of confirmed US cases of swine flu rose Thursday to 896 from 642 in 41 states, according to a daily report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

And US health officials warned against a trend for "swine flu parties" in which people deliberately expose themselves to the virus in the hope of developing an immunity.

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